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-   -   Scoping study published - insufficient funds for Navan (http://www.railusers.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=3609)

Navan Junction 07-01-2008 20:48

Scoping study published
 
The scoping study hasd confirmed route three as the preferred route of the Navan line.

Route 1 is the old alignment to Navan Junction where the new Navan Central will be built.

Route 2 is the old alignment with an extension to the Kells road for an additional Park and Ride to ber called Navan North.

Route 3 is the old route with a deviation to the M3 interchange at Dunshaughlin, returning to the old alignment but deviating west around Kilmessan. From the the old alignment is used until Cannistown /M3 where the line deviates behind the new houses and rejoins the alignment to join the Drogheda line for Navan Central, terminating there.

The Trim road station no longer figures.

Route 4 went into Dunshaughlin but would have cost €55m more because of having to go below 2 new roads and over the M3 twice.

All other five routes were discounted for the usual reason and as Ratoath cannot grow anymore as it has no more capacity for services (sewerage etc) and Ashbourne is too far.

Pros: Route has finally been selected.

Cons: Iarnród Éireann have said it is not a financially viable project as even though it will cover it's running costs as project and will be economically viable as revenue will not cover depreciation.

And €78 million has been landed on the project for the second hand rolling stock that would be used.

Estimated cost €450m at todays prices, €580 at 2015 figures.

IÉ claim section 49 levies will not cover costs (not with the 1km radius on the Dunboyne model anyway).

IÉ claim 1hr journey time to Docklands at best saying it will be uncompetitive with roads.

IÉ claim that they have no access to Tranport 21 costings but that they have been told that the funding is not in Transport 21 for that amount as it exceeds the Transport 21 costing by €200m - work out the maths.

The are recommending abandonment of the project as it does not offer the same value as other competing projects in Transport 21.

Footnote - Sewer pipe gets moved if built.

Derek Wheeler 07-01-2008 20:48

Navan Railway
 
Its my news to the masses.:D

Im putting it in here because it has a wider (and deservedly so) interest than just RUI members. Yes its an infrastructural issue, but its dynamite. The news may have broken elsewhere, but here goes.

IE made a presentation to Meath CC today in relation to the routes and costings for the rail line from Pace to Navan. The same presentation is being made to the DOT next week. Tom Finn of IE is running the show.

Some of the route options examined were bonkers, but the preferred route (option 3) is more or less the original alignment with the necessary deviations. Navan station is to be sited at the site of Navan junction. (The original site on the former railway.)

Sounds good so far, doesn't it?

But Tom Finn stated that the costings in T21 for the project were not from IE and perhaps they came from the strategic rail review of 2003. Either way he wasn't sure where the figure was plucked from, but he was adamant that it was short by 200 million! Do the maths folks.

There's more!

The project would not recoup its build costs. It would cover its running costs, but not the cost of depreciation. Therefore the document reaches the conclusion that the project is not financially viable.

Of course this doesn't mean that the line won't be built, but I feel its is a very convenient method of placing it on the back burner. Yet again my "banjo bet" looks safe and a further prediction from Dero's crystal ball.......if the dept of finance don't fancy the monopoly money that the direct route will cost, then the Drogheda route looks like a sleeping possibility.

This particular report is almost identical to a previous report done by IE and MCC. (circa 19999) That too concluded running as far as Navan wasn't viable. In fact its recommendation was to run as far as Pace and build a huge P+R for Navan commuters. The more eagle eyed amongst you will remember a debate between Barry Kenny and I on the last word in mid 2005, where he tried to justify the Pace P+R as a suitable facility for Navan commuters. Thats what it was always meant to be. Of course in November 2005 T21 pulled a rabbit out of the hat by including Navan in the list. Apparently the money was "ringfenced". But according to Tom Finn today that "ringfenced" money is a tad short. (If its even there at all)

I don't like saying these things and I know I sound like the Eamonn Dunphy of transport, but I still don't believe that Navan or the Interconnector will be built. Alternatively, it could be Navan or the Interconnector. Take your pick. Meanwhile in the west, the WRC is on its merry way. And yes, it was mentioned by one councillor in Meath, who made the very funny point that "the WRC will carry 500 people a day and thats the population of Kilmessan!"

Thats all from the funny farm.

Mark Gleeson 07-01-2008 20:52

So its exactly in line with the submission we made all that time ago, we wanted the Dunshaughlin deviation and we got it

And its nothing new that the project was going to be too expensive

Derek Wheeler 07-01-2008 21:15

Ive posted more or less the same in a different thread which crossed with this one.

The only real points of interest in todays news in relation to P11/RUI are of course the sewer pipe and the fact that I went on record saying that the won't happen by 2015. The submission is merely routine and from my perspective unimportant as I never believed it would happen anyway. I say that with respect to my former colleagues here. The correspondence I have in relation to the project will make interesting reading and Im baking the humble pie for the few that will have to eat it. As I said in the other thread, Drogheda is now the only realistic hope for Navan.

What a mess.

Mark Hennessy 07-01-2008 21:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler (Post 28996)
Ive posted more or less the same in a different thread which crossed with this one.

The only real points of interest in todays news in relation to P11/RUI are of course the sewer pipe and the fact that I went on record saying that the won't happen by 2015. The submission is merely routine and from my perspective unimportant as I never believed it would happen anyway. I say that with respect to my former colleagues here. The correspondence I have in relation to the project will make interesting reading and Im baking the humble pie for the few that will have to eat it. As I said in the other thread, Drogheda is now the only realistic hope for Navan.

What a mess.

Thanks for the update Derek, it doesn't shock me one bit now especially given the 5 year dithering over Midleton.

I'm firmly in the Interconnector not being built camp (well maybe by 2025) also :(

Derek Wheeler 07-01-2008 21:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Hennessy (Post 28997)
Thanks for the update Derek, it doesn't shock me one bit now especially given the 5 year dithering over Midleton.

I'm firmly in the Interconnector not being built camp (well maybe by 2025) also :(

When this period in time is a period in history, it will be look back on as one of the greatest catastrophes in Irish Transport history. IE have embarassed the Government today because the Government did as the usually do...they acted like transport experts, when they are not. (remember metro, luas etc etc.) Navan has a rail line and with considerably less money and a bit of vision and creativity, it can have rail services. We were not mad when we proposed the Drogheda route. We were not mad when we said the sewer main displayed a lack of commitment to the original alignment. Navan has been treated like muck for years in terms of a rail connection. Blame your Government and never believe IE spin when they are drugged up on Government promises. The reality hit hard today and Im glad of that, but disappointed for Navan commuters. They have been sold a pup. Standby for more bull**** from your Government when this news hits the media. It will all be lies and more lies. T21 is a joke at the expense of citizens literally dieing from horrendous commutes.

As for the interconnector. Brilliant idea. IE are up for it. It needs to happen. Don't rule out IE scheming against Navan to protect it. But isn't it sad that we have to think like this.

Mark Hennessy 07-01-2008 21:53

I just think the scandalous waste of our (brief) wealth from the boom times will come back to haunt us.

There has been little in the way of a capital legacy laid down for the people who helped fund the whole boom, the first time buyers out in places like Navan etc.

They have enslaved themselves to long mortgages, long commutes all to work hard to give up taxes for nothing in return. Truely sad state of affairs.

As an aside, before the election I was hassling my local candiate (Michael Fitzpatrick FF TD now) about how much room for improvement there was in the Maynooth line service and he turned to me and said in the most patronising manner about how lucky I was to have the service. How right the arrogant sh1te was.

Derek Wheeler 07-01-2008 22:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Hennessy (Post 29000)
As an aside, before the election I was hassling my local candiate (Michael Fitzpatrick FF TD now) about how much room for improvement there was in the Maynooth line service and he turned to me and said in the most patronising manner about how lucky I was to have the service. How right the arrogant sh1te was.

Remember that moment Mark and never let it go. Tell your kids about it. Tell your grandchildren about it. Im not being melodramatic about this. Its a prime example of how politicians view public transport. Realistically, after years of wealth, what have we done in terms of rail transport?

CSL 07-01-2008 22:39

Y'all will have a motorway ... Yee Ha . Don't forget it'll be tolled!

Derek Wheeler 07-01-2008 22:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSL (Post 29005)
Y'all will have a motorway ... Yee Ha . Don't forget it'll be tolled!

A key point. Its where the Government failed to realise that modern European transport networks consisted of quality road and rail networks. We have yet to experience the death of inter city rail travel as motorways shorten journey times. But its coming. I predicted it long ago. Its a pity that Ireland didn't capitalise on lessons from elsewhere.

Anyway, Im divulging widely. This is about Navan and the implications.

Mark Gleeson 08-01-2008 09:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Times
€578m rail line to Navan 'not financially viable'
Elaine Keogh

The next phase in the reopening of the rail line from Dublin to Navan would cost €578 million, was "not financially viable" and "would require the full capital costs to be borne by the Government," councillors in Meath were told by Iarnród Éireann yesterday.

The reopening of the line is part of the Government's Transport 21 infrastructure programme and the first phase of the line, from Clonsilla to an interchange with the M3 at Pace near Dunboyne, is scheduled to open by 2010.

However, the study on the viability of continuing the line to Navan found that it was costly, and if the final route took in Dunshaughlin the cost would jump by another €55 million.

The report, drawn up by consultants Roughan & O'Donovan - Faber Maunsell revealed the emerging preferred route would use two-thirds of the pre-existing line, with an extension to create a station at Navan North to link in with an existing but disused line to Kingscourt.

Including construction, stock, land and property, the cost of the line is estimated at €455 million in 2007 terms.

However, with construction anticipated to take place between 2010 to 2012, that cost would rise to €578 million, with annual operating costs of €6.8 million in today's terms. The presentation to Meath County Council also heard the service could be operational by 2013 - two years ahead of the target date in Transport 21.

The journey time to Dublin from Navan would be approximately one hour, with trains every 15 minutes at peak times, and there would be stations at Pace, Drumree, Kilmessan, Navan Central and Navan North.

With a projected 5,300 trips each way from Dublin to Navan, it would have an anticipated financial return of 4.6 per cent, and therefore just meets the Department of Finance's threshold of 4 per cent.

Tom Finn from Iarnród Éireann told councillors that 85 per cent of the projected population growth would be needed to justify the development and "even the slightest drop in population could have a very significant impact on the rate of return." He acknowledged that "financially, you would not touch it with a barge pole because of the costs".

The scoping study ruled out spurs on the line to Ratoath, Ashbourne and Dunshaughlin, but the emerging preferred route does includes going close to Dunshaughlin.

It also said up to 25 per cent of the funding could be raised through development levies, with the balance sought from the exchequer. The report will now go to the Department of Finance.

© 2008 The Irish Times

Remember we said to would could 300 million (at 2004 prices), well we are proven right 455 less the rolling stock cost (which is normally separate) gives about 300 million

Garrett 08-01-2008 15:41

So, as I understand it:
- Pace to Navan will never happen
- Drogheda to Navan could be a runner
- Financing a rail project to Navan could jeopardise finance for the Interconnector.

Those who always predicted this situation are justified in making it known that they were right all along. P11/RUI members do need to give themselves a pat on the back every now and then, and we need this for "attacking" IE and the government. However, I suppose RUI needs to quickly move on and deal with the scenario. I'm just a fly-on-the-wall member so I was wondering how the really active members think RUI policy will evolve on this issue?

Mark Gleeson 08-01-2008 16:02

We predicted this more or less, Navan would be the first casualty.

The first person to let it slip was Dick Fearn CEO of IE who in a published interview clearly stated it wasn't a certainty that was back in spring 2006

In terms of the route, we where proven 100% on every single aspect. We didn't say East or West of Killmessan (west was the obvious choice) but everything else we got spot on. We did make a submission (so its on record for all to see) and we did speak at considerable length with the IE people working on the route choice right down to the manholes (proven right there as well)

On cost yet again we hit very close

We are not really in the infrastructure business for this very reason we know what should be done but there is very little support to achieve this

However it must be emphasised that the Navan line will cover its operational costs the WRC will not and the costs at todays prices are not much different

No annual passenger number quoted in the reports but we think its in the 2-2.5 million bracket

Its all speculation really until we see a copy of this report, it would be most inappropriate to issue a formal statement until that time

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 16:20

Not speculation. I've read the report twice

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 16:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garrett (Post 29026)
So, as I understand it:
- Pace to Navan will never happen
- Drogheda to Navan could be a runner
- Financing a rail project to Navan could jeopardise finance for the Interconnector.

Those who always predicted this situation are justified in making it known that they were right all along. P11/RUI members do need to give themselves a pat on the back every now and then, and we need this for "attacking" IE and the government. However, I suppose RUI needs to quickly move on and deal with the scenario. I'm just a fly-on-the-wall member so I was wondering how the really active members think RUI policy will evolve on this issue?

I am the blasphemor who poured scorn on the Navan project. I will rot in hell for my actions.:eek:

While no longer a committee member, I'd suggest that the Drogheda angle be taken off the shelf and put into the media again. IE themselves have now removed one of the reasons they used against this proposal. If the interconnector was built, then loads of trains could run from Navan on the northern line.

Drogheda would be the logical reaction from this organisation.

Prof_Vanderjuice 08-01-2008 18:20

As a matter of interest, how many T21 rail projects are financially, as opposed to economically, viable? Pace isn't (http://www.meathontrack.com/uploads/...rt.pdf#page=26) and neither is Midleton (I can no longer locate the study online, but it's discussed on pages vii and viii, or 7 and 8 of the pdf - and probably at greater length elsewhere - for anybody with a saved or paper copy; the study states that "there are few rail projects which can be justified solely on financial grounds"). I think I remember reading somewhere that the only project emerging from the Dublin Suburban Rail Strategic Review as financially viable was the Phoenix Park Tunnel.

It might be that the economic results were unsatisfactory, but nobody's actually said so. Of course, the points about costings and population growth are valid ones.

Mark Gleeson 08-01-2008 18:23

We need to see the report to see exactly what it says, what assumptions and so on

Midleton is in fact profitable

Oisin88 08-01-2008 18:25

The Irish Times article above says:
Quote:

With a projected 5,300 trips each way from Dublin to Navan, it would have an anticipated financial return of 4.6 per cent, and therefore just meets the Department of Finance's threshold of 4 per cent.
Does this not mean that from the DOF point of view it is financially viable?

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 18:33

Yup, once born it will breath on it's own

Financially speaking that is

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 18:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navan Junction (Post 29045)
Yup, once born it will breath on it's own

Financially speaking that is

Might be a very long pregnancy though.

Its also worth noting that IE havent just said its unviable on financial grounds. They have recommended that the project be abandoned. The longer people tolerate this charade and fool themselves into believing that the direct route will happen, the less likely Navan will get a rail service.

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 18:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson (Post 29043)
We need to see the report to see exactly what it says, what assumptions and so on

Midleton is in fact profitable

I'll get my copy back sometime tomorrow and I'll scan it in.

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 18:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler (Post 29046)
Might be a very long pregnancy though.

But hopefully not a phantom one

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 18:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler (Post 29046)
The longer people tolerate this charade and fool themselves into believing that the direct route will happen, the less likely Navan will get a rail service.

Oh Navan will get a service alright. Either directly or via Drogheda.

But Drogheda won't be considered until the direct line issue is decided

That's just a political reality

We all know that it would makje sense to stick a couple of the new intercity trains on the Drogheda line and to link up on an existing path at Mosney loop.

But politically the idea won't gain traction until the fate of the direct line is decided once and for all.

Either route kicks hell out of road journey times

Prof_Vanderjuice 08-01-2008 18:45

Mark,

Midleton would be financially viable in the sense of covering capital costs from revenue? (I know it would be profitable - as would Navan - insofar as covering operating costs is concerned.) I was just going by the 2002 Faber Maunsell study, which assessed options for the whole Cork network rather than Midleton alone, but found that even the ones excluding Midleton would still have negative financial outcomes. They do mention that nearly all the Midleton options, including the preferred one, would cover their operating costs. There may have been another subsequent study I've forgotten about.

(I won't go further with this because it's getting off topic - just curious.)

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 18:52

It's not off topic - no private enterprise has even considered railways as a means of making money in decades

If a railway line is viable that it is the best you can hope for - they are there as an economic asset and preferably not to be a drain on public finances.

Navan meets both of those considerations.

Iarnród Éireann purposely put the boot in on this last night - and the word on the street it was to put pressure on the Minister in his own patch to come up with more money

ofjames 08-01-2008 19:10

This report surely makes IE's case for claiming the broadstone alignment utterly redundant???

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 19:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by ofjames (Post 29053)
This report surely makes IE's case for claiming the broadstone alignment utterly redundant???

Not nessessarily. I've never understood the rush to Luas for the alignment.

Broadstone is the last heavy rail alignmnet available into Dublin and shouldn't be used up until it is certain it will never be needed.

You can run a Luas up the canal alignment but you can't run a train down it.

If you loose the Broadstone alignment and the Interconnector trips slips or dies then you have problems.

The canal alignment is there and should be used.

We can't have gotten so used to the goodtimes that that we forget that things can go horribly wrong, have we?

I remember when I was a kid one lane of the M50 between Firhouse and the Greenhills road was build and lay idle for what may have been a decade, I haven't a clue.

Point is the story told at the time was that the money wasn't there to move on it.

Don't ditch your back up plan until you no longer have need for a back up plan, particularly if there are other options

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 19:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navan Junction (Post 29049)
Oh Navan will get a service alright. Either directly or via Drogheda.

But Drogheda won't be considered until the direct line issue is decided

That's just a political reality

We all know that it would makje sense to stick a couple of the new intercity trains on the Drogheda line and to link up on an existing path at Mosney loop.

But politically the idea won't gain traction until the fate of the direct line is decided once and for all.

Either route kicks hell out of road journey times

The fate of the direct line has been decided. Your Government just don't have the balls to tell you.

As regards road journey times, I wouldn't be so quick to make that assertion on the basis of road projects under construction on the route. I know people in Kildare that are switching back to their cars when the red cow interchange is finished. Why? Because they reckon it will be quicker and less hassle. Tell them about the interconnector and they role their eyes to heaven. This is the reality that we face and fail to plan for. You know aswell as I do that the vast majority of people in Navan don't give a hoot about the railway. It's the same in the west (WRC). The western moaners were appeased quite cheaply. The eastern moaners are a different ball game and vastly out numbered by car loving commuters who want every other car user on public transport.

I don't blame IE on any of this. They are trapped in the world of politics and must play the game. They are also trying to administer resources to build all these projects. They are tied up on the WRC, kildare route and midleton at the moment. If everything was to go to plan they'd be facing into electrification of the Dublin area, interconnector and navan, all at the same approximate time. Thats a lot of money for the dept. of finance and an unprecedented amount of work for IE.

Sorry, as a supporter of navan, I still think its dead in terms of the direct route. You'd think that the scopping study would have been done before any announcement. Oh yeah. Thats right, it was done in the late 90s and the conclusion then was the same. Run as far as Dunboyne and build a P+R for navan as going all the way wasn't viable. But T21 was drafted by civil servants. That sums it up really.

packetswitch 08-01-2008 19:32

Quote:

Iarnród Éireann purposely put the boot in on this last night - and the word on the street it was to put pressure on the Minister in his own patch to come up with more money
That theory did occur to me today. Any word (official or unofficial) on Dempsey's reaction?

ofjames 08-01-2008 19:41

im reading on boards that dempsey has come out tonight on rte and said that the navan line WILL definitely be built. Confusing stuff indeed if true

Mark Gleeson 08-01-2008 19:42

http://www.rte.ie/news/1news/

Its not finanically viable but it is economically viable

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 19:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by ofjames (Post 29058)
im reading on boards that dempsey has come out tonight on rte and said that the navan line WILL definitely be built. Confusing stuff indeed if true

He was hardly going to say otherwise. Anyway, its not up to him.

For the record, I don't believe him. Last night I predicted he'd come out with this type of baloney.

JUST TELL THE GODDAMN TRUTH DEMPSEY.

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 20:49

Navan rail line 100% certain, says Dempsey
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by packetswitch (Post 29057)
That theory did occur to me today. Any word (official or unofficial) on Dempsey's reaction?

http://www.meathchronicle.ie/story.asp?stID=1801

Navan rail line 100% certain, says Dempsey

MINISTER for Transport Noel Dempsey yesterday (Tuesday) swept aside doubts expressed by Iarnrod Eireann on Monday about the viability of reopening the Navan-Dublin rail line and declared that he was "100 per cent" behind the project.
"It will happen," Mr Dempsey told the Meath Chronicle, hours after the rail company briefed Meath County councillors that the next phase of the reopening of the line, costing €578, was "not financially viable" and "would require the full capital costs to be borne by the Government".
He said that Iarnrod Eireann`s approach to the project had been "extremely conservative", and quoted the scoping study which had clearly stated that the project was a valuable one which would justify the use of public funds. The minister also said that the company had taken a very conservative view of projected population figures along the route using 2002 census figures.
Eighty-five per cent of the forecast population increase would have to be realised in Navan, Dunshaughlin and Kilmessan before the project could proceed. "Not only did they use 2002 census figures, but they did not take into account the projected population growth in Trim, which is expected to go from 7,000 to 17,000 in 10 to 15 years, and similar growth in Kells," added Mr Dempsey.
The rate of economic return from the restored rail line is marked in at four per cent, according to Department of Finance guidelines. Mr Dempsey said that the rate of return on the Navan-Dublin project would be 4.6 per cent, "so I have no doubt at all about the viability of it".
The reopening of the line is planned as part of the Government`s Transport 21 infrastructure programme. The first phase, from Clonsilla to an interchange with the M3 at Pace, is scheduled to open within two years.
Iarnrod Eireann has already announced that its preferred route, out of nine options, would follow the line of the old Navan-Dublin line which opened in the mid-1800s. A study on the viability of the reopening revealed that the emerging preferred route would use two-thirds of the pre-existing line, with an extension to create a station at Navan North to link up with an existing but now disused Kingscourt line.
Meath on Track, the organisation campaigning for the restoration of the Navan-Dublin line, said that it was disappointed Iarnrod Eireann had said the project would not be viable. "That is no surprise since no rail line in the State is viable, not one fully covers it costs," said its spokesperson, Proinsias Mac Fhearghusa.
"The reason the company is saying it would not be viable is because it is maintaining that the initial capital investment would have to be met out of running costs. What is also unfair is that the figure of €580 million for the project is a 2015 figure," he added.
Also included in the projected cost were fleet acquisition expenses of €78 million. "However, large parts of the existing network are to be electrified and all that diesel stock, which could not be used on an electrified line, would become available for Navan," he added.
The finding of the Iarnrod Eireann study on the Dunboyne to Navan railway line found that, over a 30-year period, revenue from passengers would just cover operating costs, leaving no surplus to cover capital investment.
The study was carried out by Roughan O`Donovan - Faber Maunsell on behalf of Iarnrod Eireann.
However, a meeting of Meath County Council heard on Monday that the project would be viable under criteria used by the Department of Finance to evaluate major projects in terms of the wider benefit to the community and the local economy.
Councillors heard that, in today`s terms, the cost of the line was estimated at €455 million but, allowing for inflation, this would rise to €578 million during the construction period in 2010/2013.
Jim O`Donovan of Roughan O`Donovan explained that a route closely following the old railway line with an extension to a second railway station in north Navan was the emerging preferred route.
He explained that it was proposed to provide a twin track along the route, as a single track and passing loops would have insufficient capacity to provide a reliable service.
Councillors heard that the journey time to Navan would be approximately one hour with trains every 15 minutes at peak times and stations at north and central Navan, at Drumree, Kilmessan and Pace, near Dunboyne.
There would be diversions from the old line to avoid the M3 between Pace and Batterstown and at Drumree to locate the station at the Dunshaughlin M3 interchange. There would also be diversions west of Kilmessan and west of Cannistown to avoid existing properties.
The study ruled out routes that would take in Ratoath, Ashbourne and Dunshaughlin but the emerging preferred route will travel close to Dunshaughlin. It was estimated that the extension from Pace to Navan would provide 5,600 additional daily passengers on the line.
Tom Finn, Iarnrod Eireann`s Transport 21 manager, said that 85 per cent of the current projected population growth was needed to justify the development of the line and even the slightest dip in population could have a significant effect on its viability.
He said that 25 per cent of the capital costs could be provided through development levies with the remainder being sought from the Exchequer. He said that while the project did meet the guidelines in terms of economic appraisal, there were a lot of other projects competing for similar Exchequer funds.
Meanwile, Mr Finn said he was confident that there would be a rail link from Dublin to Dunboyne in 2010. While a decision on the railway order for this project wasn`t due until 19th February, he was confident it would be granted, allowing work on the link to begin by the end of this year. He said it would take two years to complete and would be commissioned in 2010.

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 21:34

Quote:

"Not only did they use 2002 census figures, but they did not take into account the projected population growth in Trim, which is expected to go from 7,000 to 17,000 in 10 to 15 years, and similar growth in Kells," added Mr Dempsey.
Ha ha ha!

I completely forgot that FF/CRH have the ability to rezone land, build houses and start tribunals. He's having a laugh at us. I apologise to the man. He obviously knows that Trim and Kells are to become cities!

Quote:

"That is no surprise since no rail line in the State is viable, not one fully covers it costs," said its spokesperson, Proinsias Mac Fhearghusa.
Eh...they were built over 160 years ago, so their capital cost is irrelevent now. Navan's capital expenditure is being set against deliverable benefits. Its not an unfair comparison. Using existing infrastructure as an example is an unfair comparison. Navan is a new build surface line. The biggest in the history of this state.

Quote:

What is also unfair is that the figure of €580 million for the project is a 2015 figure," he added.
I don't agree with that at all. Its a an inflation linked figure for the build period of 2010-2013. Its probably a conservative one at that. T21s figure was based on a 2002 estimate.

Quote:

Also included in the projected cost were fleet acquisition expenses of €78 million. "However, large parts of the existing network are to be electrified and all that diesel stock, which could not be used on an electrified line, would become available for Navan," he added.
Having thought about this one, I feel its wild speculation. If it transpired the way you claim then Navan could have 10 year old plus rolling stock. Furthermore the electrification of the Dublin area does not mean that existing diesel stock is up for grabs. For example Drogheda will still claim a hefty dose of railcars post electric to service all stops to Gormanstown. Portlaoise will claim more railcars to service stops to Sallins. Don't forget Gorey and Carlow either. IE are already short stock. Navan will require new stock to service the proposed frequencies. No doubt about it.

Quote:

He said that while the project did meet the guidelines in terms of economic appraisal, there were a lot of other projects competing for similar Exchequer funds.
QED Folks!

Im tellin ya, IE know the writing is on the wall. They didn't want the WRC. It robbed funds. They know navan has the potential to turn into another WRC. Half a billion yo yo's. It could actually kill off the interconnector. Dempsey wouldn't give a ****. All he'd care about is telling his constituents, "look I delivered the railway". (most of whom won't be on the f**kin train anyway!!) I'd love to see it happen, but the will/ability to spend isn't there unless something like the interconnector/metro doesn't happen. This Government left it all too late. The bill keeps going up and up. What happens from here on in will be political and highly dangerous.
Remember what I said earlier. IE only have so many resources. Some of them are currently being wasted in the west of Ireland. But the period 2010 - 2015 looks scary. I wouldn't like to be the one signing the loan cheque.

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 22:02

You are preaching to the converted, but you know that. Navan periodically bubbled to the surface politically over the years but like the snow of last week it never stuck.

Ask you a question. How many people travel through the doors of Hueston daily or say Connolly per day? To the nearest 10,000 say?

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 22:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navan Junction (Post 29063)
You are preaching to the converted, but you know that. Navan periodically bubbled to the surface politically over the years but like the snow of last week it never stuck.

Ask you a question. How many people travel through the doors of Hueston daily or say Connolly per day? To the nearest 10,000 say?

Yeah I know Im preaching to the converted, but its the best action this board has seen in weeks.;)

As for that question, heres one back.

Why?

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 22:11

Just out of interest, just as a comparative exercise for projected passengers numbers with Navan and other lines about the country

Derek Wheeler 08-01-2008 22:15

Listen, 8,500 passengers a day is pretty decent for the Navan line. No one can argue with that and the cars it would take off the road. But a comparative exercise with total heuston and connolly figures is useless. We probably need figures for commuter lines like carlow, kildare and gorey. But remember they are running on lines that carry other traffic aswell.

philip 08-01-2008 22:21

Surely most public transport falls into this category of being "unviable"? Just take it out of my taxes Bertie-that's what I pay them for.

What a 'country' we live in.

Navan Junction 08-01-2008 22:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler (Post 29066)
Listen, 8,500 passengers a day is pretty decent for the Navan line. No one can argue with that and the cars it would take off the road. But a comparative exercise with total heuston and connolly figures is useless. We probably need figures for commuter lines like carlow, kildare and gorey. But remember they are running on lines that carry other traffic aswell.

I know but it is relevant. I couldn't give damn whether I take a train from Navan and it gets me to Dublin city centre in 50 minutes or 70 minutes.

I would prefer any service to another decade of waiting, and either path to Dublin is better that the grid-lock rat race through Blanch.

Point is from an economic perspective it does matter because if the long term vision justifies the direct line to Navan (and God knows we have waited long enough for the dithering to end) then that's what needs to be done.

We have passenger figures for Navan for the first time - maybe it's time to work through comparisons with existing services.

The figures for the line are based on northern line comparisons as well, just to add that in


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