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Alan French · 05-09-2010, 16:42

I have looked through the NTA’s report, and the thing that strikes me is that they are repeating some of the flawed logic behind the arguments originally used for closing railways. They don’t seem to have some of the basic expertise in how the market for public transport works (but then, at lot of people haven’t).

The theory was always that buses could do the job adequately at lower cost. The NTA are using the same old arguments about buses being more flexible and having lower running costs – now they can add to that by saying there will be less emissions. What actually happened in the past was that less people used the replacement bus, since some now went by car and others travelled less often. So the result was more car journeys, less travelling overall, and perhaps not even a saving in public funds.

Connecting traffic on the adjoining lines was also lost. Closures undermined the system as a whole. See how the NTA were dismissive of the SERA’s including the whole route to Limerick Junction in their study – which shows that they don’t realise how inter-dependent each line is on its adjoining lines. (I have elaborated on this in Galway <---> Limerick: The slowest train in Europe? #15.)

Do you notice that the same arguments about buses being cheaper and more flexible, and the roads being so much better now, could be used to justify the closure of many other lines in Ireland? And I don’t just mean Galway-Limerick; on several of the radial routes their line of reason would justify replacement by buses.

There are also implications for introducing frequent train services where there is already a parallel bus route. Trains and buses tend to develop distinct but overlapping markets, because trains have a better record at getting people out of their cars. The growth in inter-city buses hasn’t destroyed the market for the parallel railways – even when the buses are faster.

Notice the contrast: the NTA’s argument is that buses will do the existing train’s job adequately. The SERA focuses on untapped potential (as we have been doing). We could put the question this way: since increased frequency has been so successful on other routes (both rail and bus), why single out certain routes for not getting an increased frequency? If you say that the radial routes are obvious cases whereas Rosslare-Waterford isn’t, then I would say that today’s high frequencies on other routes (hourly or two-hourly) would have been dismissed as ridiculous 40 years ago. “Where would you find the passengers,” people would ask mockingly.

I write this because the NTA is obviously not familiar with these lines of reason. This isn’t surprising; anyone familiar with economics and business generally, but not experienced in public transport, is likely to hold the same set of mistaken assumptions that led to the earlier closures. We have job on our hands educating people about this.

Meanwhile, on the matter of the closure notice: IR are planning to go ahead with the closure on the basis of their earlier notice. I understand that the details of the alternative bus service are a legal part of the notice. Now they say they are entering negotiations with BE. Are they not legally obliged to go with the timetable they have already announced, or else issue a new notice and wait two months? Does anyone know?

A point no one has mentioned: at present I reckon that the train from Rosslare also runs the 12.30 Waterford to Limerick Junction and its return journey at 15.10. What will happen to these?

I don't think it's time to give up yet. There could still be pressure at political level.

05-09-2010, 16:42	#10
Alan French Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 89	I have looked through the NTA’s report, and the thing that strikes me is that they are repeating some of the flawed logic behind the arguments originally used for closing railways. They don’t seem to have some of the basic expertise in how the market for public transport works (but then, at lot of people haven’t). The theory was always that buses could do the job adequately at lower cost. The NTA are using the same old arguments about buses being more flexible and having lower running costs – now they can add to that by saying there will be less emissions. What actually happened in the past was that less people used the replacement bus, since some now went by car and others travelled less often. So the result was more car journeys, less travelling overall, and perhaps not even a saving in public funds. Connecting traffic on the adjoining lines was also lost. Closures undermined the system as a whole. See how the NTA were dismissive of the SERA’s including the whole route to Limerick Junction in their study – which shows that they don’t realise how inter-dependent each line is on its adjoining lines. (I have elaborated on this in Galway <---> Limerick: The slowest train in Europe? #15.) Do you notice that the same arguments about buses being cheaper and more flexible, and the roads being so much better now, could be used to justify the closure of many other lines in Ireland? And I don’t just mean Galway-Limerick; on several of the radial routes their line of reason would justify replacement by buses. There are also implications for introducing frequent train services where there is already a parallel bus route. Trains and buses tend to develop distinct but overlapping markets, because trains have a better record at getting people out of their cars. The growth in inter-city buses hasn’t destroyed the market for the parallel railways – even when the buses are faster. Notice the contrast: the NTA’s argument is that buses will do the existing train’s job adequately. The SERA focuses on untapped potential (as we have been doing). We could put the question this way: since increased frequency has been so successful on other routes (both rail and bus), why single out certain routes for not* getting an increased frequency?* If you say that the radial routes are obvious cases whereas Rosslare-Waterford isn’t, then I would say that today’s high frequencies on other routes (hourly or two-hourly) would have been dismissed as ridiculous 40 years ago. “Where would you find the passengers,” people would ask mockingly. I write this because the NTA is obviously not familiar with these lines of reason. This isn’t surprising; anyone familiar with economics and business generally, but not experienced in public transport, is likely to hold the same set of mistaken assumptions that led to the earlier closures. We have job on our hands educating people about this. Meanwhile, on the matter of the closure notice: IR are planning to go ahead with the closure on the basis of their earlier notice. I understand that the details of the alternative bus service are a legal part of the notice. Now they say they are entering negotiations with BE. Are they not legally obliged to go with the timetable they have already announced, or else issue a new notice and wait two months? Does anyone know? A point no one has mentioned: at present I reckon that the train from Rosslare also runs the 12.30 Waterford to Limerick Junction and its return journey at 15.10. What will happen to these? I don't think it's time to give up yet. There could still be pressure at political level.