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That won't be their concern - just like the buses, the operator will be paid a fixed fee to operate the services based on what the NTA dictate.
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The point been private operators won't want to take loads of free pass holders, what they will be offered will not meet requirements by a long shot. They will want fare paying passengers and not to increase capacity to carry people for free. There is even no data to back up usage on any lines.
Private operators won't be pushovers like IE are.
Paying lump sums will not work on heavy rail, it will work on services such as Luas/Metro and perhaps Dublin commuter because of the volume of customers and the fact that seats are not expected by anybody who uses such services.
Remember it's more acceptable for IE to make losses as they are not profitable companies such as outside operators who are profit focused. We all know if IE was profit focused there would only be 3 or 4 lines left.